Well, it’s been a stupid week, following a stupid bunch of months, following a stupid few years. Time to switch gears for a while and think on other things.
My close buddy sent over a link today while we were on the phone to this 30-year chart on how the Dow Jones has fluctuated over time:
Look at that climb. And observe the three prominent peaks throughout the process, the first being around 1999-2000 (Dotcom boom), the second around 2007 (right before the mortgage crisis and what’s been termed as our latest recession), and now the latest (and highest) at the end of 2015. What’s to come? Probably a big downturn for the market. A correcting of sorts.
We care about this because he’s invested in all sorts of companies and manages investments for other family members. I somewhat care because he’s taught me about these matters through his own learning process over recent years, and also I started my own little Roth IRA account a year or so ago. One of the two stocks I own (Hudbay: HBM) looks like it might not recover, but time will tell. Mining companies are having a tough time these days. The other stock (Potash: POT) likely will recover eventually.
But we’re trying to get an idea of what’s happening in the market and when the next opportunity for buying might arise. Looks like it probably won’t happen in 2016 since a big dip is on the horizon. What goes up eventually must come down. But the current spike presents an opportunity for him to sell off shares while some of his stocks are still highly (perhaps overly) valued. Mine are in the dumps currently so all I can really do is continue holding and waiting. Might average down on Potash again eventually if it dips low enough, but Hudbay is starting to look like a money pit at this juncture.
We also tried looking up information on the major investors in Hudbay today through MorningStar. Were seeking info on any trade activity by its key executives but weren’t able to find any buying or selling listed for 2016 or 2015 by them. Hope that information isn’t being kept from the public and that we can trust there truly were no transactions to concern ourselves with, not even from David Garofalo, the recently-retired CEO of the company.
I won’t pretend to trust much of anything coming out of the investment community. Everyone’s there to make a buck and none care if some other schmuck loses in the process. All is competitive and self-concerned. Don’t care what the analysts say or who claims what about any particular company since I’ve yet to find a financial analyst I trust one iota. But it’s interesting to look into this stuff, to observe the process and take note of the ups and downs.